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Observations on the New Maps

From Ogden On Politics:

EDITOR’S NOTE:  This article is Marion County-centered, but it also has an excellent analysis of the maps statewide.

I have waited to write on the new maps because frankly the political impact of those maps are only a guess to those of who weren’t part of the small handful of the people who worked actively in drawing those maps.  Even many legislators are still studying the impact of the changes on their re-election chances.  I have not been able to find on-line the actual amended redistricting bill that lists the counties, townships and precincts in each particular district.  As a result, I’m like everyone else – just eyeballing and making guesses.  Some observations:

Democrats are screaming that the Republicans have engaged in “gerrymandering,” i.e. the drawing of districts to favor the GOP.  Every majority party gets accused of this at re-election time and rightfully so because that’s exactly what the majority party always does.

Having said that the Democrats’ concerns are way overblown.  The fact is, while Republicans can lock down legislative gains through redistricting, it would be difficult to increase the margins substantially more than what they are now.  The Indiana Senate is now 37-13 majority Republican using a map drawn by Republicans.  The Indiana House is 60-40 majority Republican using a map drawn by Democrats.  It is virtually impossible for Republicans to take out the numbers much beyond that because when the GOP tries it would cut the districts too close leaving scores of Republican legislators vulnerable during the inevitable GOP down years.  One bad election and poof the majority is gone.

Read the rest at Ogden On Politics.


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